​Habitat Suitability Model

Mountain Caribou populations in southeastern BC have been significantly declining due to increasing anthropogenic pressures and changing climate, and are now listed as "Threatened" by COSEWIC. Identifying potential risks to Mountain Caribou habitat through forecast models is crucial for allowing wildlife managers to successfully target core habitat for protection. This project seeks to identify the changes to existing caribou habitat in the Hart Ranges of BC over the next seventy years. Using multi-critera analyses, we mapped the changes in habitat according to a range of factors affecting caribou habitat preference: elevation; slope; distance from forestry roads, highways, and railroads; biogeoclimate (BEC) zones, and land use. In order to determine the effects of climate change, we compared present suitable models to the forecasted habitats of 2080. As temperatures begin to rise and precipitation levels change, the BEC zones will also change, therefore affecting Mountain Caribou habitat. From our models, it is predicted that high suitability habitat areas will decrease by about 27% by 2080. A sensitvity analysis revealed that there is some uncertainty in the MCE results. We also wished to determine whether the existing parks are located in areas that provide maximum protection to core caribou habitat. It was determined that the present park does encompass significant suitable habitat, but by 2080, the most suitiable habitat locations change, and the park is no longer efficient. Forecasting risk and targeting core Mountain Caribou habitat areas through spatial predictions is crucial to effective wildlife management, ensuring the protection, restoration and conservation of this vulnerable species for future generations.