​Habitat Suitability Model

      Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are one of the most symbolic Canadian animals of our wild areas. As human populations continue to grow, Mountain Caribou's habitat has subsequently shrunk. Caribou once roamed throughout most of mainland BC, with a sharp decline from approximately 2,500 animals in 1995 to 1,700 in 15 herds today (BC Gov., 2013a). Mountain Caribou spend most of the year at high elevations in subalpine forests and alpine habitat. However, as the climate changes and human impacts increase, caribou habitat and population levels are rapidly decreasing. They have been classified as "Threatened" by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) and are protected as ‘big game’ under the BC Wildlife Act (Naturally:Wood, 2012). 

      Many factors may limit caribou persistence and isolate populations; understanding these will help to stop or reverse population declines by forecasting high-risk areas. One main threat to caribou is climate change. Changes in temperature and precipitation will reduce the tundra ecosystems that occur on high mountains throughout much of the province, and upon which caribou so heavily rely (BC Gov., 2013b). 

      Our project will model the potential impacts of climate change on Mountain Caribou habitat in southeastern BC. A Multi-Criteria Evalutation (MCE) analysis will be carried out in order to locate suitable habitat regions for the caribou, focusing on the Hart Ranges region. Then, using forecasted Biogeoclimatic (BEC) Zones, we will predict high risk areas resulting from climate change and increasing temperature. 

      Identifying potential risks to Mountain Caribou habitat through forecast models is crucial for allowing wildlife managers to successfully target core habitat for protection, enhancement, and restoration in order to prevent

this population from extinction.