Conclusion

The developed forecast model allows us to observe how climate change will affect Mountain Caribou habitat in southeastern BC. As temperatures begin to warm and precipitation levels change, the biogeoclimatic (BEC) zones will also change. Caribou are dependent on vegetation and climate, and so these changes in BEC zones may have drastic affects on their distribution ranges. Through our models, it can be seen that by 2080, there will be significant decreases in availability of the BAFA, CWH, ESSF, and SBS zones upon which Mountain Caribou rely so heavily. Our models have determined that the most suitable habitat areas will decrease by 26.5% in the next 70 years!

Knowing this, park placement becomes a critical factor in caribou management and the protection of suitable habitat. Locating areas in BC that will successfully act as habitat regions for caribou may help to stop or reverse population declines. Forecasting risk and targeting core Mountain Caribou habitat areas through spatial predictions is crucial in wildlife management, ensuring the protection, restoration and conservation of this vulnerable species for future generations.